>> tomorrow is the centennial of the armistice that ended world war i. president trump and first lady melania trump will attend a ceremony in paris to mark the occasion. the french president will speak. live coverage starts at 4:30 a.m. eastern on c-span. "> c-span's "washington journal live every day with news and policy issues that impact you. coming up this veterans day sunday morning, professor john mosher along with professor will join us. end of worldss the war i and the armistice of november 11, 1918. the sure to watch c-span's "washington journal" live at 7:00 a.m. join the discussion.

now a discussion on the political climate and ongoing conflict in afghanistan. an hour.ust over peter: good afternoon, everybody, welcome to new america. my name is peter bergen. we've got a very distinguished panel to discuss kind of afghanistan in the next year or two. obviously, we just had a parliamentary election. we will have the presidential election next year. we had the insider attack that almost killed the general. general miller, in charge of afghanistan had to pull his

taliban'sdicative of ability to carry out this operation. so we begin with the moderator who's been visiting afghanistan since 2007. she made a film about the taliban in afghanistan and pakistan in 2008-2009. next to her is ioannis koskinas who has lived in afghanistan since 2010, first of all as special command working for jennifer christopher -- general christopher finney, setting up his own company which has been involved in mining in afghanistan and also security. he's doing his phd at king's college london about the afghan civil war which of course so much of what is going on in afghanistan today is traceable to what happened in the '90s during the civil war. arsalan, whohamid

has just come back on friday. and is the senior program officer at the national endowment for democracies. he is also a former u.n. official in afghanistan, and c-span is covering this. it's not like but it be live to tapes would have a question please make sure you wait for the mic and identify yourself so c-span viewers can understand who is asking the question. so with that i'll turn it over. >> all right. thank you to the new america foundation for hosting this time event on afghanistan, and also what you think the audience for being here in spite of the rain. i i would like to begin my remarks with a disclaimer that my views are my own and do not represent the views of my employer. as peter mentioned, i returned from

afghanistan over the weekend. i was there to observe the afghan elections in an informal capacity. it was not a formal observation mission. i spent most of my time in kabul and traveled to the provinces. but before i discuss basically the recent trip, i wanted to tell you guys a story and frame my remarks in a story that happened basically in the previous time in 2014 when i was also observing the afghan elections. in 2014 as an observer i was based in the western part of afghanistan when i received a call. i received a call that 11 individuals on their way home after basically voting in the district, their car was pulled over. and because their fingers had the ink from the elections,

the taliban had chopped off their fingers. so, when i heard this story i was like, i really need to go and meet with the victims. why -- so, i went to the hospital, in meetings with most of these victims, one of them kind of struck me the most, an older gentleman in his late '50s. in afghanistan this is probably considered old. with the turban and white beard. and he was smiling. in my mind i was like this guy must be crazy. he just lost a finger and he is smiling. so i approached him and i talked to him, and he smiled at me and he was like, son, the taliban chopped off one of my fingers but i have nine more to go vote nine more times. may i remind you that this gentleman may not even know what democracy is. he may be illiterate. but i think his story is the

story of millions of afghans who have embraced this to afghanistan, this constitutional order, democracy. and with their participation and results, they -- and resolve, they are saying no to tyranny and terrorism that is presented by the taliban, other terrorist groups and the regional backers alike. i think that story and that result was demonstrated by the afghans in the most recent parliamentary elections. as an observer again i have witnessed long lines of afghans who came despite all the rest to participate in the elections. you know, there was this other individual in one of the polling centers that i was observing the elections. he could not find his name in this new voter class. i was in that center for maybe over an hour and i could see this man going door to door and saying that i have this sticker,

but my name is not here and i really, really want to vote. so despite all of the risk i think , afghans, they demonstrated, they came in millions and participated to cast i think their vote. you know, another incident that happened in one of the polling centers, there was a sonic bomb that went off. and it was just amazing how most of these individuals who were waiting in line, they did not even move. they just brushed it off and they stowed and waited in line to exercise their constitutional right. there were of course some technical issues. there was this new biometric system that was introduced. there were some delays, and people who were trying to cast their vote, but overall i think it made the process more

transparent, the fact there was -- specifically designed for a polling center that helps in reducing this kind of ballot stuffing in afghanistan. but we were talking earlier that the whole new biometric system was introduced kind of i should say in a rush, and there was not enough time for the polling staff and others and officials receive enough training so that long lines at some of the polling centers and some had to be reopened the next day. but overall when you're talking to afghans and african civil society, they saw the process as a victory, especially on the parliamentary front, on the candidates front that there were lot of young afghans who

nominated them. as candidates in this process. they were employing a new mechanism of campaigning, bringing their families and kids basically going door-to-door campaigns around the country. so it was really i think remarkable on that front. the other big issue when i was there was this potential talks or peace with the taliban. as many of you know there has been some contacts and some meetings between u.s. officials and the taliban representatives in qatar, and their are going to be probably -- and there are going to be probably some talks in russia in the next few days, which recently just yesterday the afghan foreign ministry announced that no afghan officials would participate in an official capacity but i think that there will be some representatives from the high peace council that is an independent body will participate in this process. a few key things i want to

peace front ishe ep the afghan people, that you want to have peace and they have demonstrated how forgiving they can be. in afghanistan. i lived under the telegram. and when the piece -- peace occurred, i was amazed by how forgiving the afghan people can be like the thousands of taliban, hundreds of their members during those three days of peace fire, they came from the fighting post to the villages, to the city centers. the afghans, they didn't forget the atrocities they are committing. they are literally killing them everyday, but there was no single incident of an afghan stabbing at taliban member. instead, they were basically taking salafis with them. so really the afghans they do want to have peace, but i

think the peace process should not be top-down model. it should be rather a bottom up model where all afghans are engaged from the village level, district level to the provincial level. the afghan civil society i work for national endowment for democracy. civil society, the women, media, they have to feel that they are included basically in this process. i don't think we can achieve peace in afghanistan behind closed doors. and when it comes i think the negotiation process, this hasn't started yet. there are talks. in my view those negotiations have to be afghan owned and afghans -- and afghan led for the process to be long-lasting. i think i will stop there and then i will be happy to engage in questions and answers. commentswill ago your but in this down, there are not

that many organizations unfortunately that are paying as much attention on afghanistan that they should. new america has always been very supportive of that and i deeply appreciate it. also, c-span has always been very good about supporting this so this is quite a treat to get representatives from an afghan voice and quite frankly, someone who is obsessive about the afghan voice. kabul most of the time. but i am a product of both the western dynamics so i hope that what i can add to this is a lens of how we view this from here to afghanistan and in afghanistan rather than, and i will let you handle what the pulse is like from, obviously not average afghan but a various form of -- a very informed afghan on

what's going on there. so with that in mind let me just throw this starting point for the discussion and then look forward to the questions and the audience questions. we just had an election at the end of october in afghanistan, and it's true, there is an enormous amount of hope and courage that was represented by the afghan people going to the polls. inefficiencies aside, at the last few weeks i think this has been one of the most anticipated votes in the last five years, the parliamentary elections were two years plus late in the making. so the fact that they were held actually as a starting point is quite important and i think the west views that as a milestone achieved.

albeit like i said not efficient or however else you want to characterize it. the second milestone that obviously the west is paying attention to is the presidential election that's going to happen towards the end of spring next year which is another one of those that conditional support towards afghanistan is very much based on achieving certain milestones and at least that's the south asia strategy and one can argue what achievable is or what return on investment may be represented, but certainly on a macro scale these two events are quite significant. they are significant for another reason. tomorrow we have elections here in this country, our midterm elections. have, whichever side you lean on, you may have different opinions about what is going to happen and the informed opinions

were not exactly 100% accurate during our presidential election, so there will be some surprises i'm sure but nevertheless, there's going to be a policy reflection, based on this election, at least in congress, congressional and senatorial perspective. but the president is also up for reelection and i know it seems like very far away but in two years we are going to have elections again here and no doubt the issue of afghanistan, although it may be tempered in some ways with all of the things that are going on there, what happens to afghanistan is certainly up for grabs. i have no information that would feelingthis but my gut is that decision is probably coming sooner than the 2020 election.

is going to become a much more interesting for the president reflection post this election and you have more time to spend on it. but let's not forget that president trump his , initial gut feeling was not to support the expansion of the mission or the continuance of the mission as it is now. he was convinced to stay the course and afghanistan, and in some ways reintroduce certain capabilities of their, but more attention on it. that is not guaranteed. and that we stay this way, he changed his mind once and he could possibly change his mind again, it's something we need to take stock of. so again in the characterization of what's just happened, great importance, and what's going to happen in may is also superb, supremely important. but how it is viewed here, there's a lot of skepticism, a lot of concern about whether or

not the mission is still worth it. we have to earn it every day. for somebody who is an absolute supporter and police in the mission, i've committed my life to it, that afghanistan's sovereignty and, quite frankly, the freedom that it represents their is a beacon that we need to reinforce. but we have some work to do because i think the odds are completely stacked against us always in the context that people are looking for reasons to not stay, not necessarily looking for reasons to stay. what i hope this discussion brings is that it reinforces or at least in my mind, i'm sure you would agree, there are many, many reasons why we should stay. and enormous cost if we stay out. with that in mind i'll pause there and look forward to your questions, tresha, and of

course, the audience. tresha mabile: this is a question for both of you. if you are the wife of the 39-year-old mayor of utah who was recently killed in an insider attack, how do you tell your children why it's worth it for us to be there or what it's worth it for him to risk his life in afghanistan? ionnis koskinas: i can take that, because look, i served in the military. i've been around families have lost. i was literally just down in florida for the induction of master sergeant john chapman who basically gave his life on roberts ridge in eastern afghanistan on the early days of the war in 2002. and i was there with the family and all the gold star families that they could muster were there. and i can tell you that they feel pride in the sacrifices that their family members made. they believe in what they did because those individuals that went there

believed what they were doing was right. and i think that, you know, i get chills even thinking about it because if i didn't believe that, i would not either. my kids were probably going to kids, who are probably going to watch this because it mebecause they always ask when c-span is going to cover this so to my kids that always , see me leave and not be around them as they're growing up, to my partner, to my mom, my dad, the rest of my family, all of them sort of believe that what i'm doing is important. so to that young wife of seven kids, it's not easy. i'm not downplaying it but i think there's an entire support mechanism that believes in what that person did and what he was going after, and, quite frankly, i do, too. and i think she does. the children will, and there will be all of us that will continue to remind them that

their dad's sacrifice wasn't for nothing. tresha mabile: hamid, what happens if the u.s. leads afghanistan? addd arsalan: let me just -- and my deepest condolences on a personal level to the family of the fallen soldiers. but i just want to add one thing that the afghans alongside with their american friends they are fighting this war on terrorism, 20 plus terrorist groups facing on the front lines on a daily basis. there are tens of afghans are losing their lives basically fighting this terrorism, but like ioannis says, their loss is not basically wasted in afghanistan. i mean, if the u.s. were to leave afghanistan, i think afghanistan is not going to go anywhere. afghanistan has been there for 5000 years. the afghan people have been there all this time. but the fact is

that the afghan government, afghan state, right now, we are not in a stage to be self-reliant. we don't have a strong economy to be able to support our military force, right now at least in the next few years. afghanistan does have a lot of resources. as you know we have a lot of minerals, but for us to be able to extract those minerals, to be able to pay for our army, our police and our state bureaucracy, we do, until then we do need basically the support from the united states and other international partners. just recently, a couple weeks ago in washington we had a couple of mining agreements that and signed between afghan american companies and afghanistan to extract basically those minerals out of afghanistan. the level of trade and exports

in afghanistan has increased because of the air corridors exporting products to india, exporting products to europe, to china. so basically afghans are trying, they know the problems of afghanistan are own problems and had to own it. but if the u.s. were to abandon afghanistan, i mean, we are in a region where we are not, we don't have so many friendly neighbors, and i think there are a lot of regional actors who do not want to see a democratic and a stable afghanistan. i think it would probably want to see afghanistan to treat afghanistan like a client state. that is not something the afghan people want. we have demonstrated that in the bilateral security agreement the afghan government has signed

with the united states and the partnership agreement i was talking about earlier that when the strategic partnership agreement was signed between the united states and the afghan government, and the grand assembly that took place when more than 2000 delegates from afghanistan came to be part of that discussion, there were so many individuals who were trying to kind of like derail those talks that this partnership agreement was not fix it in u.s. and afghanistan, but overblown majoritye overwhelming , offghans, more than 90% the african delegates they said yes to have a strong relationship. this partnership agreement basically with the united states because they know what the alternative is. the alternative will be chaos and probably more intervention. so i do hope that all the investments we make in afghanistan during the last 17 years both in terms of blood and treasure, will be able to protect them. i'm

also a businessman. and from a business perspective we've invested so much in afghanistan. i mean, the level of troops in afghanistan is not nearly as much as they were in 2014. we have a small foothold of troop presence in afghanistan. the level of expenses have come that i think -- have come down and i think during the next two years the number of troops may, gradually lower in afghanistan. the afghan forces will fill in the security void. so until we are able to completely protect the country, we will definitely need some support from the united states. tresha mabile: let's talk about talking to the taliban, an idea that's been going to rent for 17 years now. are you about the current talks? ionnis koskinas: no. i mean, the

simple answer is i'm not, i'm not optimistic at all. in fact, i don't think we should be talking to them in this format. whatsoever. my initial thought with it was that talking is good at all times, and maintaining a channel open for conversations, even in the darkest moments of the cold war, you still had conversations between rival nations that were ready to push the button and go the wrong direction. but we have built these false expectations that negotiations are just around the corner, and, unfortunately, this sort of notion reinforces the worst sort of tendencies in this town because people want to get out. so we just come with almost are almost setting ourselves up for a really rather be careful what

you ask for, because we are talking to, we say we are talking to afghans who are just have an alternative view of what's going on. their voices deserve to be heard, too. i'm sorry. when things are going boom and they are killing thousands of people, there is no talk that's going to make that thing better. at one point that should happen but not now. as hamid very accurately haveibed, i quite frankly been very adamant about, they are a terrorist organization and until they start behaving otherwise, then we should treat them as terrorists. the last

time i checked we don't negotiate with terrorists, or at least that's our mantra, no matter how we maintain some quiet conversations through interlocutors, that's fair enough but not reconciliation . in fact, i would go a step further say that it undermines the afghan government, in my opinion. because when we send our envoy to qatar or when we talk about the russia talks with no official representation from the afghan government or when you have these conversations as if we are talking to yet another government in waiting. it's absolutely nonsense. we're going to actually damage the integrity i think of the state that were actually trying to uphold and strengthen which should be our objective. i mean look, insurgencies are at their very core a competition. it's a competition for the masses, the dilemma that somebody may have in terms of joining the government and supporting the insurgency. the way that we help

our odds get better is not by engaging with the insurgency at stages where they are killing people but by strengthening the government and making it much more attractive for the average afghan to decide and to stay with the afghan government, rather than somehow make it appear as if there is some legitimacy with the afghan taliban. so that's my take on it. i was born in war. i grew up in war and i have experienced war and what working to firsthand. like me, millions of afghanistan do want to have peace. but the cost of peace has to be defined. the student of conflict

transformation, unless the usual sanctuary that the taliban enjoy across the border in pakistan -- they there is a -- and have a base across the other side of the border, i think it will be very difficult as to any sort of like settlement that will be able to reach. i think i want to go back to the point about how forgiving afghans are. we demonstrated that during the three-day cease-fire, but i agree with you, ioannis, that the afghan government has to be strengthened, the institutions of the government have to be strengthened. they should be able to provide services for its citizens across the whole parts of the country. and i think it's good and it's okay if they're basically talks, but when it comes to negotiations itself, like i say, it has to be the afghan government, the afghan people.

like, they should feel that they are owning this process if you want to have long-lasting peace. it is going to be something on a piece of document, it's not going to last if the civil society, if media and others don't feel they are part of it. can i add ones: thing? because i meant to say you're exactly right. afghan people are very forgiving. certainly they are incredibly forgiving when you approach them with an open heart and you approach them with the desire and respect associated with forgiveness. they are also very unforgiving and revengeful if you take the exact opposite approach, and there is no remorse and there's nothing of the sort. we have to be careful because look, the marines went down to helmand and they achieved a lot in 2010 and 2011.

okay? there were a lot of afghans that stuck their head out and believed in the concept that we are here, we are going to be with you, we're can help you out. and then we left. there has been a bloodbath and a lot -- in a lot of those towns because of what happened. we can say that about other places as well. and the point here is that forgiveness is an incredible concept that belongs with people that behave within norms. when somebody comes out and actually behaves in that way, i'll be as forgiving as anybody can be. i will be the best afghan in that context, but when the don't and they are killing people left, right, and center and a great example of the three-day cease-fire, every afghan i know had the greatest admiration and sort of good hope that this is a change. but do you know what, those people started killing at

alarming rates immediately after that. they know how to switch on and off. they haven't switched off. when they are ready to switch off, let's talk. but when they're not, it's a real troubling sort of perspective. tresha mabile: i mean, do the people trust the taliban? hamid arsalan: i think the taliban, they know that they do not have the legitimacy per se like in the whole country. i think in pockets of the country they may be able to control territory and they may have their own structure of governments. in my view most of that is through intimidation and fear. i think the last 17 years the country has really, really transformed. like two-thirds of the afghan population is basically under the age of 35. this new afghanistan who enjoys a vibrant civil society and access media outlets and so

forth. a lot of developments have happened. so in terms of trust, i don't think the afghans, they trust them. i think we should be aware that the war literally we're fighting in afghanistan, it and not aafghanistan, it is declared war that an internal war against afghans. as the taliban says georgia peace? the afghan constitution, you know, literally a few thousand -- let us say, 10,000, 40,000, 50,000, 60,000 people, we shouldn't have this notion that you mention that there's a rushed process that you in a hurry to have peace deal that the taliban is bring them into this system of government in afghanistan. if the taliban want to be part of the process in afghanistan, they should come and participate in the elections. we have elections scheduled for april of 2019, and

they can come and run but i think they know that they don't have the legitimacy. i wonder about the afghan people --do they have hope? because in 2007 and earlier after 9/11, afghanistan was such a haven and such a great place to be, restaurants, shops. i i wonder if that still exists today? and people go out walk and really enjoy life? what went wrong between then and now? why are we in a position where there's so many attacks in kabul? for westerners it doesn't seem like a safe place to be. i will begin. an afghan american, i have to be careful where i go, but life really is noble. restaurants are open, they are open. people go out to dinner. they authorities. when i was in

the country literally there was a bomb that went off the caused casualties and i got a few hours later an invitation for a dinner. me and ioannis were talking earlier, the noble thing there is not the same as normal that you and i probably would experience here in the united states come in washington. but overall i think they are very resilient. life goes on in afghanistan despite the conflict and everything that's happening in the country so definitely there is life. there is enjoyment. you see wedding celebrations, parties but overall i think, i mean, i don't want to paint a rosy picture. there are challenges associated in the country as well. economic challenges, security challenges and so forth. there's aninas: element, my trouble is i

straddle two worlds. on the one hand, having gone to afghanistan since 2005, there are not many airports that i feel like i land in, and as ridiculous as a make it sound anybody here, i land in the airport in kabul and i walked out and i breathe the air and i feel like i'm home, you know? you walk a little bit further and you see this ridiculous, you know, fountains like for structure, dolphins in a landlocked country and a -- and i chuckle every time i go through there. but you know, somebody chuckle of who actually feels like this is where i live. this is were i feel most comfortable in. so maybe i have grown comfortable in that environment, but the truth is that it is getting more dangerous, and afghans are very resilient and, quite frankly, they don't back down from challenges. so you learn now to learn how toey

live with new norms. but at the same time it's challenging, particularly outside of kabul. there's probably an attack happens in kabul, but, and there's definitely some mass casualty attacks that happen, but for the most part on a day-to-day basis there are probably parts of d.c. that are more dangerous than parts of kabul. the truth is that you have to be conscious of who you are and where you are and how you may be targeted in kabul, but it's outside of kabul that it's far more challenging. the roads are difficult and you go 50, 100 m left and right of a major highway and you have some challenges. people, this is the stuff that we can say we control the population centers and everything else, but afghanistan is more than the city. the truth is that we downplay the control the afghan taliban may have over

the areas in the countryside, but the reality is we need to get that back because that's the heart, you know, in many regards of people's homes, their villages, their ability to reach out to the is kind of important. so in terms of the security, there's challenges. in terms of hope, to your original point, look, hope is, mining, minerals is a great abundance in afghanistan. i only wish we could monetize the incredible hope that is in that country because that's perhaps the greatest sort of resource that it has. it's huge. it's a man's. -- it is huge. it is immense. where we fall short of his delivering promises to keep that

hope up. when that happens you allow other elements of society to feed on the lack of hope or the lack of progress, and create a -- and create the negative things that diminish. are otherile: countries filling the gap? tells about china and russia and iran. what's happening in the region? ionnis koskinas: here's the thing. it's actually interesting to observe as an american there. we go there with the greatest intention, and other countries may feel otherwise, but i wish we were a little bit more nuanced in our approach. i wish we were all a bit more out so much,ping maybe the mining should not be, we should attract western firms because western processes, we should attract western firms, canadian, american, british. not only -- they are a lot more akin to social responsibly, different

practice for the five, all those -- for the environment. all of those things. i wish we were all a bit more nuanced about it. unfortunately, we go there with the best intentions of doing right and good and all that other stuff. other countries are not. they are predatory. china is not there because it needs to create some sort of silk road the -- that benefits afghanistan. my god, they are there like locusts to take material away from the country. as long as there's a benefit to the afghan state, quite frankly i'm okay with that as long as it's not a predatory practice where they promised some kind of royalty rates for the example, of mining. they promised some sort of royalty rates, they promised railroads, they promise, they promise, they promise and then they see a weakened afghan government over the years and they come in with

predatory behavior and say look, that was 17%, let's go with something much, much lower. or do you know that railroad that i promised? it's not going to happen so soon. so now we have these predatory behaviors that are not benefiting the country. russia, come on. russia is not afghanistan's friend. there's quite a lot of data that supports that. so the idea that somehow there in the for some kind of interest is ridiculous. iran has legitimate concerns. it has a border, water issues,, all sorts of things. but, are they looking at it from a let's help a brother out? i'm not so sure. pakistan, you think about that. i have been -- the father of the taliban was killed. a few days ago, okay? these animals, these people that have been responsible for so many deaths and so much destruction

are walking around like it's nothing. they were jumping up in -- they were jumping up and ta when rozik was killed. they were having, redoing advance. they walk amongst -- so that's where i challenge. these countries may have legitimate national interest, and we should consider that, but when they are doing it in a way that actually diminishes the strength or the argument of afghanistan has right to exist and prosper and they take predatory behavior, i'm not cool with that. hamid arsalan: i could not say it better than that. i defer. tresha mabile: is president ghani a good leader? is a

-- he popular? i mean, myan: personal view, i think in my view i think he's a good leader. there are some on the political elite side there may be some disagreement and some people they may not like him. so when i was in kabul actually i had breakfast with an individual, a businessman. this man, of course he knows the president what he -- he knows the president. look, as a businessman i feel like i can do business better now because there's less corruption and institutions of government in afghanistan, and so i think he is trying but being the president of afghanistan is not an easy task. i mean, he is active. is engaged. of course i'm not, i have not worked with him closely i have a lot of him whowho work with share basically his vision for the country. so he does have a

vision for the country who he is working hard for, making the country reliant in the long term. like i say, that are like every i guess administration and every government there will be opposition and people who not like your style of government or leadership. he is trying hard i -- he is not corrupt as a president and he is trying hard i think to i guess bring peace to that part of the world. i think one of his biggest achievements i would say is that in terms of foreign policy, that he went on animate it like really public that we have this undeclared war with pakistan. he brought that story from washington, brussels, to others, that we're dealing with this kind of post war. and try to mix the economy -- make the economy

better. since he took office revenues increased by 60% like revenue collection. just recently, a few days ago the world bank was doing business indicator that was published. afghanistan has jumped 16% compared to last year basically in terms of making the environment, of doing business in afghanistan better. and then the regional initiatives that have taken place under his government and the previous government, but mostly under his leadership that he pushed on that. the electric grid that he has worked hard and pushed for, the in turkmenistan and pakistan. so overall i think in a nutshell i personally respect that. i use a lot of his work when i wrote

my thesis on foundation building. and i think he means well and he is working hard to making the country a better country. tresha mabile: one more question before we opened it up, but ioannis, if someone asked you to brief the president on why we should stay in afghanistan, what would you say? president trump. well, i mean,s: the short answer is it's in our vital national interest to remain in afghanistan, because leaders like that, like short concise statements. i would say the taliban would probably allow the same safe havens inside of afghanistan of terrorist groups to remain or readjust themselves to orient themselves back there. there's a pocket of isis there that is of a serious concern, not just to afghanistan but to

the region, and by extension to our national interest. and we shouldn't forget that although people say that their only about 120 al-qaeda members in the region, we keep killing a lot of them and they seem to stay at the magic number of 120. same with the magic number of about 1800 isis and we keep on killing them with the mother of all bombs and, you know, operations a couple hundred at a time but somehow someway they retain the numbers at about 1800. so the numbers games play, really, the point is the numbers don't really matter that much. the matter that we have, we have a terrorist, terrorist pockets still there. the last thing, and this is perhaps counterintuitive because it's really easy for all

of us to throw the big, but if it wasn't for pakistan's activity over there, everything would be perfect and afghanistan. the fact is that we need to be in afghanistan because things are not that stable in pakistan. it's a different country. it's a very important country, quite frankly, and they have hundreds of millions of people. we are seeing the violence associated who was actually released by the judicial system of pakistan because of some blasphemy laws but there's a challenge, a friction between extremist in pakistan and what i consider the moderate state of pakistan. and so so long this -- and so allowing this

afghanistan to dissolve into some kind of spiral that allows things to deteriorate to where an extremist organization such as the taliban is taking hold is not going to help actually the situation in pakistan, as witness at sam's. i think it's not in the interest of the packets on state. pakistan to have afghanistan follow part. -- fall apart. there are so many dynamics to this. but you could just sit there, item after item. why the fight matters there.

>> there is the statement from a national security advisor back them. he says that the world will empire, the fall of an ae world will not remember bunch of battles. and he could not be more wrong. once the u.s. abandoned afghanistan back them, that created that security void and

led to al qaeda coming in and taking over and the taliban we know. presidentage to the would be let's not make that mistake we did in the 80's. right now, in afghanistan, i think we have a reliable partner. people, they want the united states to stay. that theyhis analogy want to be in this neighborhood. so i do hope that message goes back. >> please state your name and your affiliation. question which i

will try to be as short as first, it seems like everything is going well, but to thatd you respond information released which says less than 45% is under control of taliban. secondly, corruption, drug, and all of these internals. and that the u.s. has no primary objective in afghanistan. that is, broadly, why this is happening. that is the first part. aboutly, you have talked , that allof pakistan of the terrorist attacks have originated from afghanistan. that means that they should be a strict supporter of border

management, spanning millions and billions of dollars, so why do we not see support for this management? the last one, just regarding the , i refer to a statement by hillary clinton, where she clearly laid out who created and funded the taliban. what are your comments on that? ok, i think i understood the first one. i don't think i have indicated that everything is going great in afghanistan. think we arery, i

in a rather dangerous glide outcomesards negative in afghanistan. it sounds reasonable that the percentages of taliban controlled territory or short contested territory has gone up. i think it is probably a little bit rosy in its approach. i think that we tend to put the mountains as in comparison to the more nuanced perspective. i can tell you that, from my vantage point, see different portions, i think it is much more dangerous than the reports. is to facet answer

the challenges and not pretend they are not there. but i think we have heard that effort, suggesting that we are somehow arresting the taliban movement. we haven't. they're quite strong. corruption, the so i don't clog the entire time, i would be more than happy to discuss this with you at length, i think what happens with corruption is that, number one, if you do not tackle it it will continue to get worse. at the same time, when you put pressure on a system that is already under extreme pressure and there is no clarity in terms of our we staying or leaving, corrupt people will go and eat more, they will gorge themselves

, because they think they have limited amount of time. that is what we are experiencing in some ways. i think it is probably not so positive one comes to trending. management,r potentially, look. i'm a very firm believer, and admittedly this is a talk about afghanistan, but it can't go without a mention of pakistan. i would like to identify afghanistan and deal with some afghan problem first. in the we talk about the external sort of challenges and handle it in buckets. but the reality is, as most of these things happen, it is all mixed together. , i think full issue

there are legitimate concerns about afghan safe havens that impacts pakistan. those areat legitimate concerns and, quite frankly, i don't think many would argue that. i think what most would argue is grouping,of that attacks against pakistan versus the scale of what is perceived as grouping that affects afghanistan, but you are exactly right. there is a concern that needs to be handled, and i am an advocate of border control, however, people tend to get into this line issue, as am sure you understand, that that sort of solidifies somehow from the afghan side, a claim they do not adhere to.

as an american, if i was going to advise my president, i would say that rather than dealing with reconciliation, we should be talking about key issues such as those. he does those can reduce friction between the two countries, instead of amplifying dealing in some ways by with the insurgency as a primary issue, rather than a state to state consideration. lastly, in terms of who can create a taliban, i'm not sure that is a conversation we really want to have, but i would say that what really started the theban was the failure of post-soviet afghan experience. taliban was the seven groups that could not get their act together and the civil war he created.

there was also evidence that pakistan, in its national interest, and that is something we have to take stock of, supported the taliban. know, the state that my country has to contend with afterwards. did we scrub in the beginning, absolutely. -- screwup in the beginning? absolutely. we should have done something different. but when it comes to what , i thinkfterwards there's plenty of blame to go around on who created them. i just find it offensive, quite but i find it offensive that we are not arguing about substantive issues such as how do we resolve challenges, rather than talk about hey, could you help us out?

somebody ifasking you can help me with bandaging my wound, but not helping me with my cancer. long answer. i hope i answered it. >> i think you answered it. question.r one more thank you for coming out. john buchanan is my name. thank you for coming and share your perspective. united states or western democracies have a waning support for the ongoing war. which part of the coalition ,trategy do you see as working and how can you craft a persuasive message? >> great question.

look, we waited far too long to create what is considered the modern afghan army or police. we were quite bulky in the way that we sort of put together forces thatecurity are supposed to protect afghanistan, when in fact, the truth is that a lot of people only smallut portions of them are effectively .ighting the insurgency it would address very specific fixes.

we cannot handle 1000 casualties over a couple of months. how do we fix that? those are very specific things we need to address. we have helicopter accidents since march, that is normal, even in wartime, that should not be the case. the deployed advisors, there are rumors that, perhaps, they are not receiving adequate training your -- training. if that is the case, then shame on us. we know that the advisories is a primary mission. we are not putting sufficient intellectual capital and the right people there, then it's a mistake. to answer your question specifically, we have to have specific answers to these things. right now, there is no military

solution, it's got to be , millerl, and generally has finished his assessment of the situation. are, and having known a general miller for quite a long time, i'm sure he's going to come with very specific answers to fix these problems. he's not a big brush kind of person, he is very specific. i hope we get that sin. -- soon. there is a big transition that is also happening on air 45, the afghan army, their transitioning from the russian helicopters to an american base. blackhawks that are going to be given.

that is also very, very significant. but just a quick point on the remarks. believe that it is debatable from the 34 provinces afghanistan has. central government is controlling many. but if there are some districts they are controlling and some that are contested, that is an issue that can be discussed. but overall, even in those areas, the issue of government. mentioned order damage. understanding, the afghan security forces are often very cooperative with the pakistani government.

on the other side, from the afghan expectation, they reciprocate. , buttioned in my remarks from the afghan perspective, there should not be a good taliban. really, people's relation, if you were to say, the afghans, they do want to have a good relationship with pakistan. the president took office, he broke protocol by going to the army chiefs office, trying to ask the pakistani officials and others in bringing them to

the negotiating table and helping during the peace process. you referenced hillary clinton. maybe we can bring that question up to secretary clinton. management, it is definitely an issue that needs to be discussed on both sides. [inaudible] >> i was going to clarify. [inaudible] >> yeah, yeah. yeah.is contested, >> one more. i really appreciate those

.omments we don't hear them here, and i might a phrase that somewhat differently, but i think it is important that we do that, otherwise we set up false expectations. i wondered whether the basic problem here with negotiations is that we are under the assumption that what it is that the taliban just want a better deal. somehow, if we gave them the right combination of that they would say well, ok, we will have a political party now and will enter the political system. isn't the real problem here that us,taliban keep telling

saying we want an emirate, we want the restoration of the emirates. yes, it will be different than it was before, but that is what we want. they wanted some kind of power-sharing arrangement, they could have had that anytime the terms might have been different, just to conclude this comment, rather than a question, we can get an agreement with the taliban tomorrow. if were willing to do it on their terms, not ours. surprised thate they won't even sit down to talk peace.much less conclude >> a couple of ad hoc things.

i kind of rushed to the air force portion out, because i tend to over focus on air push -- air force. i actually think that, if we didn't have the air component at this point, the percentages would look a lot different. blackhawks, it's going to take some time for them they're probably going to come quicker the c-130s, all that stuff, the going to keep on being key components and we need to strengthen that. we need to send the right people i think you raise an incredibly in terms of the reconciliation. one of the reasons i don't think it is the right time is, number one, like i said, i don't like

getting in conversations about resolving this and being shot at but the reality of it is that i will take it if i think there is something real i just don't think there is anything real, like you said. when i come out and say they and the u.s. out completely they consider the government of afghanistan a puppet regime that and they wantate to completely bring in a regime may be a good starting point, like hey, i will go high, you go low, or not buying carpet syria. this is actually something much more significant so i think you will say, in closing comments, because i assume that's where we are look

able to seeump was at the dmzeas meet where everybody said it is impossible. and they did. for although we can say about tweeting and everything else, he has achieved certain things that we did not believe. he could be pro-war against, but certain things, you know, he achieved in terms of a starting point. i must say that we've actually buteved peace in korea there are some things that have happened. afghanistan, io think he was persuaded to do the right thing, and i'm obviously

biased in my opinion, but we need to keep on adding the right mechanisms for him to stay engaged or otherwise, we are all going to suffer pakistan will suffer, afghanistan will suffer. because this is not good for anybody if afghanistan goes down. so with this, i appreciate your take on this. thank you for graciously hosting this. it was seriously a pleasure being on stage with the. keep up the good fight, we need .eople like you involved >> i want to highlight a few things for you in the audience watching this. of 2018 is not the afghanistan of 2001 or the 90's that the taliban had.

that is something we have to be aware of. on any indicator you put the country, you see advancement and would have more women in our parliament in the u.s. has in its congress. there are more women in cabinet weitions in afghanistan that have here, vibrant civil sided, media. so the dream of the taliban have this emirates of islam is going to remain a dream. but one other quick point on the i think themy view smart question is to ask pakistan what is it that they and theirafghanistan assistance in bringing them to the negotiating table so one

last point, afghanistan to genuinely has moved over. they are embracing regional initiatives. afghanistan to develop, they want to be living side-by-side with pakistan, with iran, and other neighbors. with the taliban, they want to come back and reestablish and emirates. thank youou very much to new america. [applause] today is the centennial of the armistice that ended world and firstident trump lady melania trump will attend a

ceremony in paris to mark the occasion a manual macron will speak. coverage starts at 4:30 a.m. eastern on c-span. now, author and historian doris kearns goodwin talks about her latest book "leadership in turbulent times." in which she focuses on president abraham lincoln, theodore roosevelt, and lyndon b. johnson. this is about an hour. >> good afternoon and welcome to the national press club. newsan editor at bloomberg , and i am the 111th president of the national press club. before we get started, i would like to ask you to please silence her cell phone if you have not already. if you are on twitter, we do encourage you to tweet during the program and use the